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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Detroit Red Wings
3
FinalTV FS-D, TSN4·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-3. The Red Wings scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 2:00 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 63%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.4 to 3.1; shots on goal were TOR 35, DET 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Jimmy Howard stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (2 G), 2. Nick Jensen (2 G), 3. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    N. Jensen2 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR11121529535
DETDET1605218329

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    N. Jensen(1)
    D. Helm (1), C. Ehn (1)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    7:18
  2. TOR
    M. Rielly(3)
    M. Marner (7), J. Tavares (1)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    15:48

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(3)
    Z. Hyman (4), J. Tavares (2)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    2:00
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(8)PPG
    M. Rielly (9), N. Kadri (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    3-1
    7:30

3rd period

  1. DET
    N. Jensen(2)
    L. Glendening (1), A. Mantha (1)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    3-2
    10:18
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(9)PPG
    N. Kadri (4), J. Tavares (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 pts
    4-2
    11:11
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(2)
    T. Bertuzzi (1), F. Hronek (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +10 pts
    4-3
    13:56
  4. TOR
    R. Hainsey(2)EN
    J. Tavares (4), N. Zaitsev (1)
    slapxG 0.20win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:39

Penalties

TOR 13 PIM·DET 15 PIM

1st

  • 4:45TORNazem Kadri · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 7:38DETDanny DeKeyser · Interferencedrawn by Kasperi Kapanen2 min
  • 9:49DETDanny DeKeyser · Fightingdrawn by Josh Leivo5 min
  • 9:49TORJosh Leivo · Fightingdrawn by Danny DeKeyser5 min

2nd

  • 6:03DETLibor Sulak · Trippingdrawn by Par Lindholm2 min
  • 8:33TORAuston Matthews · Holdingdrawn by Gustav Nyquist2 min
  • 16:28DETLibor Sulak · Hookingdrawn by Par Lindholm2 min

3rd

  • 11:01DETDanny DeKeyser · Holdingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 11:50TORRon Hainsey · Trippingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 15:38TORMartin Marincin · High stickingdrawn by Justin Abdelkader2 min
  • 15:38DETJustin Abdelkader · Roughingdrawn by Martin Marincin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 2nd 2:00 — TOR 47% → 63%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.43D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.28F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.17A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.15N. Jensen · Goal · xG 0.14T. Vanek · Missed · xG 0.14D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.13A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.11T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.10T. Vanek · Missed · xG 0.09D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.09A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.09T. Vanek · Missed · xG 0.09A. Athanasiou · Missed · xG 0.08N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.08F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.07L. Sulak · On goal · xG 0.07A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.07N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.06T. Vanek · Missed · xG 0.06L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.06F. Nielsen · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kronwall · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kronwall · On goal · xG 0.04N. Jensen · Goal · xG 0.04A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.03A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.03N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.03F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.03N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.03F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.03L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.02D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.02L. Sulak · On goal · xG 0.02G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hicketts · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hicketts · Missed · xG 0.01F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeKeyser · Missed · xG 0.01L. Sulak · On goal · xG 0.01N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.01F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hicketts · On goal · xG 0.00D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 3.1 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
3.44 G
All situations
3 G3.1
2.22 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.72 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR53%47%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.22 – 3.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
35
Shots on goal
29
50%
Faceoffs
50%
2/4
Power play
0/3
13
Penalty minutes
15
17
Hits
23
11
Blocked shots
7
6
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22N. ZaitsevD011-120.11220—24:17
44M. RiellyD112+150.22010—22:05
2R. HainseyD101+120.23002—22:01
51J. GardinerD000-100.02100—19:42
34A. MatthewsC202-130.440025819:35
16M. MarnerR112+140.41100—18:36
91J. TavaresC044+230.481005018:35
24K. KapanenR000020.33110—17:49
12P. MarleauC000-120.150103317:00
26P. LindholmC000-130.250207116:35
11Z. HymanL011+120.13400—16:14
43N. KadriC022010.361024216:05
28C. BrownR000010.081005014:39
52M. MarincinD000-110.00012—14:06
23T. DermottD000020.05110—12:41
63T. EnnisR000000.08110—08:17
32J. LeivoL000020.10215—07:24
33F. GauthierC000000.001004006:27
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)29263.8973.10+0.1059:52

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).