Stars at Sharks 4-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Dallas Stars

▸4

San Jose Sharks

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Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the San Jose Sharks 4-2. The Stars came back from two goals down. The Sharks led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jamie Benn's goal at 16:54 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 48% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 1.8 to 1.5; shots on goal were DAL 23, SJS 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Mike McKenna stopped 17 of 17 (1.000), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Martin Jones stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jamie Benn (3 G), 2. Mike McKenna (17 saves, 1.000), 3. Brent Burns (2 A).

Three stars

★
J. Benn3 G
★★
M. McKenna17 saves, 1.000
★★★
B. Burns2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	05	16	312	423
SJS	218	012	01	231

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

L. Couture(33)PPG
B. Burns (53), T. Hertl (24)
wristxG 0.04win prob +11 pts
0-1
9:21
T. Meier(20)
B. Burns (54), J. Pavelski (43)
wristxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
0-2
15:16

2nd period

J. Benn(30)
J. Klingberg (57), T. Seguin (37)
wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
1-2
19:29

3rd period

G. Smith(6)
D. Shore (21)
wristxG 0.10win prob +36 pts
2-2
14:43
J. Benn(31)
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.06win prob +42 pts
3-2
16:54
J. Benn(32)EN
Unassisted
wristxG 0.22win prob +5 pts
4-2
19:36

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

8:15Marc Methot · Roughingdrawn by Melker Karlsson2 min
10:10Timo Meier · Trippingdrawn by Marc Methot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: SJS

Biggest swing: Jamie Benn, 3rd 16:54 — DAL 48% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.5 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 1.8 xG · 37 att SJS

2 G · 1.5 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.83 G
All situations: 2 G1.5; 1.63 G
Even strength: 1 G1.4; 0.00 G
Power play: 1 G0.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

51%49%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.57 – 1.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 31; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 0/1
Power play: 1/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 27
Hits: 15; 15
Blocked shots: 21; 7
Giveaways: 5; 5
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
3J. KlingbergD	0	1	1	+2	3	0.07	1	0	0	—	24:20
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	+2	3	0.05	1	2	0	—	22:02
47A. RadulovR	0	0	0	+2	1	0.01	1	0	0	—	20:37
29G. PaterynD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	2	3	0	—	20:03
91T. SeguinC	0	1	1	+3	2	0.20	0	0	0	43	19:57
33M. MethotD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	5	2	2	—	19:33
14J. BennL	3	0	3	+3	4	0.42	2	0	0	60	17:55
2D. HamhuisD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	17:48
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	3	4	0	44	16:53
6J. HonkaD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	15:13
21A. RousselL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	2	0	—	14:35
40R. ElieL	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	3	0	0	—	14:01
46G. SmithC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.13	2	0	0	0	13:49
25B. RitchieR	0	0	0	+2	2	0.19	2	1	0	—	13:45
17D. ShoreC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	1	0	0	67	12:55
18T. PitlickC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	0	0	0	12:48
90J. SpezzaC	0	0	0	0	1	0.38	0	0	0	36	11:22
13M. JanmarkC	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	0	0	0	0	11:18

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35M. McKenna(W)	17	17	0	1.000	1.12	+1.12	44:06
32K. Lehtonen	14	12	2	.857	0.40	-1.60	15:54

Season series

DAL leads 2-1

Dec 310@6Final
Feb 182@5Final
Apr 34@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

Box score