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Maple Leafs at Islanders
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
New York Islanders
4
FinalTV MSG+, TSN4·Barclays Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the New York Islanders 5-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 16:02 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.6 to 3.3; shots on goal were TOR 32, NYI 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 0.7 goals below expected; Christopher Gibson stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 3. Anthony Beauvillier (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    A. Beauvillier1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR11121229532
NYINYI211111111433

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    A. Beauvillier(18)
    J. Eberle (31), A. Pelech (14)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    12:04
  2. TOR
    N. Kadri(31)PPG
    M. Marner (47), M. Rielly (44)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +10 pts
    1-1
    16:22
  3. NYI
    J. Boychuk(6)PPG
    A. Beauvillier (13), B. Nelson (14)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    18:34

2nd period

  1. TOR
    N. Zaitsev(5)
    A. Matthews (25), J. Gardiner (42)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    7:56
  2. NYI
    B. Nelson(19)
    A. Ladd (16), A. Pelech (15)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +19 pts
    2-3
    10:45
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(22)
    J. Gardiner (43), N. Kadri (23)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    17:18

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. van Riemsdyk(36)
    R. Hainsey (19)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +25 pts
    4-3
    2:01
  2. NYI
    J. Tavares(34)PPG
    A. Lee (22), J. Eberle (32)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +25 pts
    4-4
    6:28
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(31)
    W. Nylander (39), Z. Hyman (24)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +41 pts
    5-4
    16:02

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·NYI 6 PIM

1st

  • 16:15NYIAnders Lee · Slashingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 16:37TORDominic Moore · Trippingdrawn by Dennis Seidenberg2 min
  • 20:00TORAuston Matthews · Hookingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 5:06TORConnor Brown · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Davidson2 min
  • 11:18NYIAnders Lee · Roughingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 11:18TORNazem Kadri · Roughingdrawn by Anders Lee2 min
  • 13:49NYIJohnny Boychuk · Delaying game puck over glassdrawn by Tyler Bozak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTOR goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 3rd 16:02 — TOR 48% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.19A. Beauvillier · Goal · xG 0.17T. Hickey · Missed · xG 0.17J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.14R. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.13D. Seidenberg · Missed · xG 0.13B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.13A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.12C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.11J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.11M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.11B. Davidson · On goal · xG 0.11J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.10M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.10A. Ladd · Missed · xG 0.09A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.09J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.08A. Ladd · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.07B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06D. Seidenberg · On goal · xG 0.06R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.04N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.04J. Boychuk · Goal · xG 0.04B. Davidson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.03M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hickey · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.02J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.02T. Hickey · Missed · xG 0.02D. Seidenberg · On goal · xG 0.02B. Davidson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Boychuk · Missed · xG 0.01C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.01J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.01C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.00
NYI4 G · 3.3 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsNYI
3.65 G
All situations
4 G3.3
2.44 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.71 G
Power play
2 G1.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR47%53%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.06 – 3.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsNYI
32
Shots on goal
33
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/2
Power play
2/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
13
Hits
14
8
Blocked shots
21
8
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
16

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2R. HainseyD011+210.00120—23:53
22N. ZaitsevD101+220.08110—23:45
51J. GardinerD022+100.01010—23:25
44M. RiellyD011+110.07000—21:35
12P. MarleauC000-120.71200018:57
43N. KadriC112-120.200024418:09
42T. BozakC000+120.240205517:22
16M. MarnerR112-150.6800010017:12
11Z. HymanL011+210.122005017:02
34A. MatthewsC112+240.330123316:38
29W. NylanderR011+240.330008916:09
28C. BrownR000+110.120025015:02
25J. van RiemsdykL101+140.48010—14:43
8C. CarrickD000-110.04300—14:06
23T. DermottD000-100.03100—11:20
18A. JohnssonL000010.09100—09:04
24K. KapanenR000010.05100—08:52
20D. MooreC000000.001027505:31
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)33294.8793.26-0.7459:56

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).