Flyers at Avalanche 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Philadelphia Flyers

▸2

Colorado Avalanche

FinalTV ALT, NBCSP+·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the Colorado Avalanche 2-1. The Flyers scored first and never trailed. The Flyers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ivan Provorov's goal at 18:12 of the first period, which took the Flyers' chances from 62% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 2.9 to 2.6; shots on goal were PHI 33, COL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 17 of 17 (1.000), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Andrew Hammond stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ivan Provorov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Claude Giroux (1 G), 3. Matt Nieto (1 G).

Three stars

★
I. Provorov1 G, 1 A
★★
C. Giroux1 G
★★★
M. Nieto1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	211	013	09	233
COL	09	17	012	128

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

C. Giroux(27)
S. Gostisbehere (47), I. Provorov (22)
slapxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
1-0
10:24
I. Provorov(15)
J. Weal (13), A. MacDonald (14)
slapxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
2-0
18:12

2nd period

M. Nieto(14)
D. Toninato (2), E. Johnson (16)
wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
2-1
5:36

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

19:28Sean Couturier · Hookingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

2nd

3:13Jori Lehtera · Trippingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
8:45Patrik Nemeth · Holdingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
20:00Radko Gudas · Hookingdrawn by Nail Yakupov2 min

3rd

2:25Carl Soderberg · Interferencedrawn by Scott Laughton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: COL

Biggest swing: Ivan Provorov, 1st 18:12 — PHI 62% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.6 xG · 45 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.9 xG · 46 att COL

1 G · 2.6 xG · 45 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.92 G
All situations: 1 G2.6; 2.22 G
Even strength: 1 G2.2; 0.60 G
Power play: 0 G0.3; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

55%45%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.84 – 2.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

33
Shots on goal: 28; 62%
Faceoffs: 38%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 15
Hits: 22; 33
Blocked shots: 15; 4
Giveaways: 5; 6
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Philadelphia Flyers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
9I. ProvorovD	1	1	2	+2	1	0.01	5	5	0	—	27:42
14S. CouturierC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.24	0	2	2	29	23:02
28C. GirouxR	1	0	1	+1	1	0.14	0	0	0	55	21:08
47A. MacDonaldD	0	1	1	-1	2	0.08	0	7	0	—	20:40
53S. GostisbehereD	0	1	1	+2	2	0.08	2	5	0	—	19:02
3R. GudasD	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	2	4	2	—	18:34
23B. ManningD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	18:18
11T. KonecnyR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.11	0	1	0	—	17:46
93J. VoracekR	0	0	0	0	5	0.23	0	0	0	—	16:03
17W. SimmondsR	0	0	0	0	3	0.61	1	2	0	—	15:16
24M. ReadR	0	0	0	0	5	0.50	0	1	0	67	14:37
15J. LehteraC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	2	75	13:00
40J. WealC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.02	0	5	0	100	12:52
54O. LindblomL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.13	1	0	0	—	12:34
19N. PatrickC	0	0	0	0	3	0.52	0	0	0	88	12:27
6T. SanheimD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	1	0	—	12:08
21S. LaughtonC	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	2	0	0	50	11:37
22D. WeiseR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	07:36

Philadelphia Flyers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
34P. Mrazek	17	17	0	1.000	1.24	+1.24	31:31
30M. Neuvirth(W)	11	10	1	.909	1.34	+0.34	28:07

Season series

Tied 1-1

Nov 45@4SOFinal
Mar 282@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score