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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV FS-F, SN·Air Canada Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 4-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonathan Huberdeau's goal at 15:08 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 11% to 27%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.9 to 3.0; shots on goal were FLA 33, TOR 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Roberto Luongo stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 1.0 goals below expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jonathan Huberdeau (2 G), 3. James van Riemsdyk (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    J. Huberdeau2 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. van Riemsdyk1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA19110114333
TORTOR31601118435

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(21)
    M. Rielly (43), T. Plekanec (19)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:05
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(30)
    W. Nylander (38), J. Gardiner (41)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    9:24
  3. TOR
    P. Marleau(25)
    M. Marner (46)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    13:55
  4. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(24)
    D. Malgin (9)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +9 pts
    1-3
    17:49

2nd period

  1. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(25)
    V. Trocheck (40), M. Pysyk (13)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    15:08

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. van Riemsdyk(35)
    T. Bozak (31), C. Brown (14)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    2-4
    11:48
  2. FLA
    E. Dadonov(25)
    K. Yandle (45), A. Ekblad (19)
    backhandxG 0.22win prob +5 pts
    3-4
    18:34

Penalties

FLA 2 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:26FLANick Bjugstad · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

2nd

  • 2:41TORJames van Riemsdyk · Hookingdrawn by Derek MacKenzie2 min
  • 4:04TORRoman Polak · Slashingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

3rd

  • 13:32TORMitch Marner · Holding the stickdrawn by Nick Bjugstad2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau, 2nd 15:08 — FLA 11% → 27%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.18J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.18J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.16T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.16W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.14T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.11A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.11C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.09T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.09J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.09J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08P. Marleau · Goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.07T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.07P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.07P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.07J. van Riemsdyk · Goal · xG 0.07J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06T. Bozak · Missed · xG 0.06P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.05M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.04C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.04R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.04P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.04J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.03A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.02T. Bozak · Missed · xG 0.02J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02T. Plekanec · On goal · xG 0.02J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.01T. Bozak · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 3.0 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
3.93 G
All situations
4 G3.0
3.03 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.90 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA63%37%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.80 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
33
Shots on goal
35
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
24
Hits
22
18
Blocked shots
22
8
Giveaways
23
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5A. EkbladD011020.20320—27:07
3K. YandleD011030.30040—25:07
16A. BarkovC000000.071004624:40
21V. TrocheckC011+220.301006022:59
11J. HuberdeauL202+280.7000010022:49
19M. MathesonD000-120.15230—20:50
63E. DadonovL101010.38200—19:00
27N. BjugstadC000-150.931123318:51
13M. PysykD011-120.08110—16:15
88J. McGinnL000+100.00220—14:23
52M. WeegarD000030.09310—14:09
6A. PetrovicD000010.12300—13:23
62D. MalginC011-110.1720010012:48
90J. McCannL000-100.001102510:39
7C. SceviourC000-110.1211010010:20
78M. MaminC000-120.29100010:06
17D. MacKenzieC000-100.000203309:24
72F. VatranoR000-100.0000010006:51
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1R. Luongo(L)35314.8863.03-0.9758:19

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).