Predators at Sabres 4-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Nashville Predators

▸4

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-0. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mike Fisher's goal at 12:29 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.8 to 2.2; shots on goal were NSH 32, BUF 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 35 of 35 (1.000), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Pekka Rinne (35 saves, 1.000), 2. Mike Fisher (1 G), 3. Viktor Arvidsson (2 A).

Three stars

★
P. Rinne35 saves, 1.000
★★
M. Fisher1 G
★★★
V. Arvidsson2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	010	211	211	432
BUF	013	014	08	035

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

M. Fisher(2)
S. Hartnell (10), M. Salomaki (6)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +20 pts
1-0
12:29
R. Johansen(12)
F. Forsberg (32), V. Arvidsson (28)
wristxG 0.39win prob +17 pts
2-0
17:03

3rd period

F. Forsberg(21)
V. Arvidsson (29), K. Turris (30)
wristxG 0.39win prob +2 pts
3-0
16:09
R. Hartman(11)
A. Emelin (8), C. Sissons (18)
wristxG 0.03
4-0
19:36

Penalties

4 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

7:02Mattias Ekholm · Hookingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min

2nd

19:49Alexei Emelin · Hookingdrawn by Brendan Guhle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Mike Fisher, 2nd 12:29 — NSH 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.2 xG · 47 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.8 xG · 46 att BUF

0 G · 2.2 xG · 47 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.84 G
All situations: 0 G2.2; 2.84 G
Even strength: 0 G2.0; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

60%40%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.69 – 2.19

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 35; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/0
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 0; 22
Hits: 25; 19
Blocked shots: 12; 3
Giveaways: 12; 6
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Nashville Predators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4R. EllisD	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	3	2	0	—	23:29
14M. EkholmD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.20	0	1	2	—	22:11
59R. JosiD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.05	0	4	0	—	20:58
76P. SubbanD	0	0	0	+3	1	0.01	0	2	0	—	20:54
25A. EmelinD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	0	1	2	—	18:48
10C. SissonsC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.10	2	2	0	50	18:05
92R. JohansenC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.39	3	0	0	59	16:56
13N. BoninoC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.11	0	1	0	71	16:07
38R. HartmanR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.06	2	0	0	—	15:37
33V. ArvidssonL	0	2	2	+2	5	0.43	2	0	0	—	14:59
9F. ForsbergL	1	1	2	+2	3	0.56	0	2	0	—	14:24
8K. TurrisC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.21	0	0	0	40	14:20
22K. FialaL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	2	0	—	14:17
2A. BitettoD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	14:15
12M. FisherC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.19	5	1	0	50	13:17
15C. SmithC	0	0	0	0	4	0.27	1	0	0	50	13:15
20M. SalomakiR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	12:21
17S. HartnellL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.03	1	0	0	—	11:47

Nashville Predators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35P. Rinne(W)	35	35	0	1.000	2.20	+2.20	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Mar 194@0this game
Mar 317@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score