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Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN4·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor Carrick's goal at 6:22 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 65% to 81%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.7, BUF 2.5; shots on goal were TOR 39, BUF 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Curtis McElhinney stopped 38 of 40 (.950), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Robin Lehner stopped 34 of 38 (.895), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. James van Riemsdyk (2 G, 1 A), 2. Tyler Bozak (1 G), 3. Patrick Marleau (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. van Riemsdyk2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    T. Bozak1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    P. Marleau1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR21828113539
BUFBUF111119010240

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. van Riemsdyk(30)
    M. Rielly (37), C. Brown (12)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:39
  2. TOR
    J. van Riemsdyk(31)
    R. Polak (9), J. Gardiner (38)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    6:39
  3. BUF
    S. Reinhart(18)PPG
    S. Wilson (7), E. Rodrigues (11)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    14:29

2nd period

  1. TOR
    C. Carrick(4)
    P. Marleau (17), W. Nylander (37)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    6:22
  2. TOR
    T. Bozak(11)PPG
    J. van Riemsdyk (16), M. Marner (40)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +9 pts
    4-1
    14:10
  3. BUF
    J. Pominville(12)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (28), E. Rodrigues (12)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +7 pts
    4-2
    19:01

3rd period

  1. TOR
    P. Marleau(23)EN
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.93
    5-2
    19:16

Penalties

TOR 15 PIM·BUF 11 PIM

1st

  • 13:33BUFNathan Beaulieu · Fightingdrawn by Matt Martin5 min
  • 13:33TORMatt Martin · Fightingdrawn by Nathan Beaulieu5 min
  • 13:36TORRoman Polak · Interferencedrawn by Scott Wilson2 min

2nd

  • 3:51TORJake Gardiner · Slashingdrawn by Nick Baptiste2 min
  • 12:28BUFBrendan Guhle · Slashingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 15:12BUFNick Baptiste · Trippingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 15:21TORNazem Kadri · Hookingdrawn by Marco Scandella2 min
  • 16:13TORMitch Marner · Hookingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 17:45TORNazem Kadri · Cross checkingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

3rd

  • 2:44BUFJohan Larsson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Connor Carrick, 2nd 6:22 — TOR 65% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.18S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.14E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.13J. Pominville · Goal · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.12E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.10B. Pouliot · Missed · xG 0.10J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.07S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.07S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.07S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.07S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.06B. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.06J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.06R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.05B. Pouliot · Missed · xG 0.04R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.04J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03V. Antipin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.03J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · Missed · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.00M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.00R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.00R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.00S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 2.5 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
2.74 G
All situations
2 G2.5
1.43 G
Even strength
0 G1.3
0.41 G
Power play
2 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR36%64%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.73 – 2.47

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
39
Shots on goal
40
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/3
Power play
2/5
15
Penalty minutes
11
16
Hits
18
18
Blocked shots
9
7
Giveaways
8
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2R. HainseyD000+130.06010—24:58
44M. RiellyD011+140.06060—23:09
46R. PolakD011+210.02202—20:29
51J. GardinerD011+200.00012—20:10
11Z. HymanL000+130.230104318:31
12P. MarleauC112+221.00000018:08
42T. BozakC101+160.342204717:47
16M. MarnerR011+140.1712210017:18
28C. BrownR011+120.100002517:13
43N. KadriC000+110.031145017:06
25J. van RiemsdykL213+220.18100—16:06
29W. NylanderR011+130.222003315:49
23T. DermottD000+110.00200—15:00
8C. CarrickD101+130.04020—12:25
24K. KapanenR000+110.06010—11:21
19T. PlekanecC000+120.162005609:45
15M. MartinL000+110.0120510008:45
47L. KomarovR000000.001106708:11
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35C. McElhinney(W)40382.9502.51+0.5159:40

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).