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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Colorado Avalanche
3
Final/OTTV FS-TN, ALT·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 in overtime, Filip Forsberg scoring at 1:07. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Filip Forsberg's goal at 1:07 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.3 to 2.0; shots on goal were NSH 31, COL 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 0.7 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Ellis (1 G, 2 A), 2. Filip Forsberg (1 G), 3. Mikko Rantanen (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Ellis1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NSHNSH181711412431
COLCOL111072601325

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    A. Watson(10)
    C. Sissons (15), M. Ekholm (21)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:09
  2. COL
    N. Zadorov(6)
    C. Soderberg (17), A. Lindholm (4)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    12:57

2nd period

  1. NSH
    K. Turris(12)PPG
    R. Ellis (13), K. Fiala (21)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    8:08

3rd period

  1. COL
    M. Nieto(13)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +27 pts
    2-2
    4:38
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(22)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (46), T. Barrie (34)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +30 pts
    2-3
    14:22
  3. NSH
    R. Ellis(6)
    P. Subban (35), R. Johansen (33)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +42 pts
    3-3
    18:54

Overtime

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(18)
    R. Ellis (14), V. Arvidsson (25)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    1:07

Penalties

NSH 10 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:49COLNikita Zadorov · High stickingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min
  • 17:51NSHMattias Ekholm · Cross checkingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min

2nd

  • 2:12NSHRyan Hartman · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 7:37COLGabriel Landeskog · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min
  • 9:27NSHViktor Arvidsson · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 15:40COLGabriel Landeskog · Cross checkingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 15:40NSHViktor Arvidsson · Embellishment2 min
  • 19:37COLNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min

3rd

  • 13:43NSHAustin Watson · Trippingdrawn by Carl Soderberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Filip Forsberg, OT 1:07 — NSH 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.22N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.16N. Yakupov · On goal · xG 0.15G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.15M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.11N. Zadorov · Goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.09B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.07G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.07M. Nieto · Goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.05T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03P. Nemeth · Missed · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.02P. Nemeth · Missed · xG 0.02D. Siemens · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01N. Yakupov · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.01T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.01C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toninato · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 2.3 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
2.04 G
All situations
3 G2.3
1.63 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH45%55%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 2.29

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
31
Shots on goal
25
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/3
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
24
Hits
16
18
Blocked shots
21
3
Giveaways
4
9
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD123+140.18220—26:50
76P. SubbanD011030.16030—24:11
14M. EkholmD011+130.04122—23:54
25A. EmelinD000-110.01230—20:51
13N. BoninoC000+110.241105619:04
92R. JohansenC011+110.132005319:03
33V. ArvidssonL011+140.50014—18:37
9F. ForsbergL101+310.0710010016:27
19C. JarnkrokC000+110.12110015:41
8K. TurrisC101-210.070006314:38
22K. FialaL011-220.15100—14:30
10C. SissonsC011010.010006713:32
38R. HartmanR000-110.013025012:59
17S. HartnellL000020.10100—12:40
52M. IrwinD000010.06230—12:31
7Y. WeberD000000.01100—11:29
51A. WatsonL101+130.19422—10:39
20M. SalomakiR000000.00200—08:03
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(W)25223.8802.30-0.7060:10

Season series

NSH leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).