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Sabres at Panthers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Florida Panthers
▸4
FinalTV FS-F, MSG-B·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Aleksander Barkov's goal at 6:49 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 70% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 2.4 to 1.9; shots on goal were BUF 25, FLA 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.6 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 24 of 25 (.960), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Aaron Ekblad (1 G), 2. Nick Bjugstad (2 A), 3. Aleksander Barkov (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    A. Ekblad1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    N. Bjugstad2 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    A. Barkov1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1901105125
FLAFLA21129010430

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    M. Matheson(9)
    J. McGinn (9), J. McCann (12)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    1:25
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(15)
    R. O'Reilly (29), V. Antipin (9)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    5:34
  3. FLA
    A. Ekblad(13)
    K. Yandle (33), E. Dadonov (26)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +4 pts
    1-2
    16:41

2nd period

  1. FLA
    A. Barkov(24)
    N. Bjugstad (22), E. Dadonov (27)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    6:49
  2. FLA
    C. Sceviour(8)
    N. Bjugstad (23), D. MacKenzie (9)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +8 pts
    1-4
    11:16

Penalties

BUF 30 PIM·FLA 40 PIM

1st

  • 16:37BUFJordan Nolan · Fightingdrawn by Micheal Haley5 min
  • 16:37FLAMicheal Haley · Fightingdrawn by Jordan Nolan5 min

2nd

  • 1:42FLAVincent Trocheck · Slashingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min
  • 8:47FLANick Bjugstad · Trippingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 12:12FLAAlexander Petrovic · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 4:50BUFJohan Larsson · Roughingdrawn by Vincent Trocheck2 min
  • 6:07BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Slashingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 13:14BUFJordan Nolan · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
  • 13:14FLAMacKenzie Weegar · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Jordan Nolan2 min
  • 19:38BUFNathan Beaulieu · Roughingdrawn by Colton Sceviour2 min
  • 19:38BUFNathan Beaulieu · Fightingdrawn by Colton Sceviour5 min
  • 19:38FLAColton Sceviour · Fightingdrawn by Nathan Beaulieu5 min
  • 19:38BUFKyle Okposo · Roughingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
  • 19:38FLAMacKenzie Weegar · Roughingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 19:38BUFJustin Falk · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:38FLAAlexander Petrovic · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:38FLAMicheal Haley · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalBUF goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Aleksander Barkov, 2nd 6:49 — FLA 70% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.20M. Haley · On goal · xG 0.17C. Sceviour · Missed · xG 0.14E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.13J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.13J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.12A. Ekblad · Goal · xG 0.11J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.11C. Sceviour · Goal · xG 0.11E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.09K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.09J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.09A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.08C. Sceviour · On goal · xG 0.08M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.07M. Matheson · Goal · xG 0.06E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.06E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.05N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.04M. Haley · On goal · xG 0.04C. Brickley · On goal · xG 0.04N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.04C. Brickley · Missed · xG 0.04N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.03K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.03A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.02C. Brickley · On goal · xG 0.02M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.01K. Yandle · Missed · xG 0.00
FLA4 G · 2.4 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsFLA
1.91 G
All situations
4 G2.4
1.51 G
Even strength
4 G1.5
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF40%60%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.87 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsFLA
25
Shots on goal
30
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/3
Power play
0/3
30
Penalty minutes
40
14
Hits
27
4
Blocked shots
12
10
Giveaways
19
7
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. NelsonD000-210.06110—24:13
55R. RistolainenD000030.19302—23:55
93V. AntipinD011-220.04000—21:51
41J. FalkD000-100.003010—20:15
82N. BeaulieuD000-110.03107—19:55
90R. O'ReillyC011030.310107319:27
20S. WilsonC000010.17210018:15
29J. PominvilleR000010.10000—18:02
23S. ReinhartC101040.45000016:49
22J. LarssonL000000.001023115:17
21K. OkposoR000-200.00002—15:02
28Z. GirgensonsC000-200.001004414:56
67B. PouliotL000000.00000—14:03
10J. JosefsonC000-130.110003813:01
25S. GriffithC000000.00000011:50
13N. BaptisteR000-350.31010—11:45
17J. NolanC000-100.01207009:59
6M. ScandellaD000010.10000—05:08
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40R. Lehner(L)30264.8672.38-1.6259:55

Season series

FLA leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).