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Capitals at Sabres
NHL

Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Washington Capitals
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV NBCSWA, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Carlson's goal at 13:33 of the second period, which took the Capitals' chances from 68% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.9 to 2.0; shots on goal were WSH 30, BUF 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 32 of 34 (.941); Chad Johnson stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Ovechkin (1 G), 2. John Carlson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kyle Okposo (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    A. Ovechkin1 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    J. Carlson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    K. Okposo1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH01421016330
BUFBUF01007217234

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(35)
    C. Djoos (11), J. Carlson (36)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    1:18
  2. WSH
    J. Carlson(11)
    T. Oshie (21), J. Vrana (9)
    snapxG 0.86win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    13:33

3rd period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(10)
    S. Wilson (5), E. Rodrigues (9)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    12:42
  2. WSH
    E. Kuznetsov(16)EN
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.39win prob +5 pts
    3-1
    19:34
  3. BUF
    E. Kane(19)
    R. O'Reilly (26), S. Reinhart (17)
    wristxG 0.17
    3-2
    19:56

Penalties

WSH 6 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 17:53BUFJohan Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Jakub Vrana2 min
  • 18:54WSHBrett Connolly · Interferencedrawn by Scott Wilson2 min

2nd

  • 13:33WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · High stickingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min

3rd

  • 4:14WSHNicklas Backstrom · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalWSH goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: John Carlson, 2nd 13:33 — WSH 68% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.18S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.10E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.09E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.09E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.08S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.07R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.06R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.06R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.06K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.05J. Josefson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.03R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.02E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02J. Josefson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.02E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Falk · On goal · xG 0.02E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.00E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 2.0 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsBUF
3.92 G
All situations
2 G2.0
3.52 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH75%25%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.38 – 1.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsBUF
30
Shots on goal
34
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
14
Hits
21
10
Blocked shots
9
11
Giveaways
4
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9D. OrlovD000+220.01110—23:49
2M. NiskanenD000020.02100—22:44
74J. CarlsonD112+220.92010—21:34
44B. OrpikD000-220.09330—19:23
43T. WilsonR000-100.001005018:06
8A. OvechkinL101030.82400—17:54
19N. BackstromC000-130.220224517:35
77T. OshieR011+310.0200010016:59
29C. DjoosD011+110.12000—16:01
20L. EllerC000020.180106115:44
92E. KuznetsovC101+330.670023815:33
22M. BoweyD000-110.12100—15:28
83J. BeagleC000000.000005014:05
18C. StephensonC000010.1300010013:09
13J. VranaL011+120.20210—12:01
25D. Smith-PellyR000030.1611010011:57
65A. BurakovskyL000-110.08000—11:16
10B. ConnollyR000-110.17002—10:42
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(W)34322.9411.96-0.0460:00

Season series

WSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).