Ducks at Red Wings 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Anaheim Ducks

Detroit Red Wings

▸2

FinalTV FS-D, PRIME·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Anaheim Ducks 2-1. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Frans Nielsen's goal at 15:37 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 73% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Ducks, 2.7 to 1.5; shots on goal were ANA 33, DET 16. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. John Gibson stopped 14 of 16 (.875), 0.5 goals below expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jimmy Howard (32 saves, .970), 2. Frans Nielsen (1 G), 3. Dylan Larkin (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Howard32 saves, .970
★★
F. Nielsen1 G
★★★
D. Larkin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	016	05	112	133
DET	15	18	03	216

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

D. Larkin(9)
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
0-1
13:32

2nd period

F. Nielsen(13)
A. Mantha (15), M. Green (23)
wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
0-2
15:37

3rd period

A. Henrique(17)
K. Bieksa (6), R. Rakell (24)
wristxG 0.34win prob +8 pts
1-2
16:06

Penalties

4 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

2:17Nick Ritchie · Roughingdrawn by Niklas Kronwall2 min
9:32Mike Green · Hookingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
16:25Danny DeKeyser · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

3rd

5:06Tyler Bertuzzi · Trippingdrawn by Antoine Vermette2 min
9:21Darren Helm · Slashingdrawn by Antoine Vermette2 min
17:39Kevin Bieksa · Trippingdrawn by Darren Helm2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DET

100%

Biggest swing: Frans Nielsen, 2nd 15:37 — DET 73% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.5 xG · 28 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.7 xG · 46 att DET

2 G · 1.5 xG · 28 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.71 G
All situations: 2 G1.5; 1.61 G
Even strength: 2 G1.5; 1.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

74%26%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 1.47

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

33
Shots on goal: 16; 65%
Faceoffs: 35%; 0/4
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 8; 26
Hits: 17; 14
Blocked shots: 20; 10
Giveaways: 13; 2
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Anaheim Ducks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4C. FowlerD	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	1	0	0	—	25:13
47H. LindholmD	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	1	2	0	—	21:40
10C. PerryR	0	0	0	0	4	0.41	0	1	0	—	20:35
15R. GetzlafC	0	0	0	0	4	0.23	0	1	0	40	20:18
14A. HenriqueC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.66	1	3	0	50	19:37
26B. MontourD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	19:25
33J. SilfverbergR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.10	0	0	0	—	18:33
17R. KeslerC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.12	3	2	0	83	18:21
67R. RakellR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.24	1	0	0	67	18:00
42J. MansonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	1	0	—	17:50
25O. KaseR	0	0	0	0	5	0.32	0	0	0	—	17:17
3K. BieksaD	0	1	1	0	2	0.05	3	1	2	—	16:08
7A. CoglianoC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.13	1	1	0	0	14:24
23F. BeaucheminD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	13:38
37N. RitchieL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.19	4	0	2	—	13:17
50A. VermetteC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	1	0	0	63	08:25
71J. BrownR	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	07:38
21C. WagnerR	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	5	0	0	100	07:11

Anaheim Ducks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
36J. Gibson(L)	16	14	2	.875	1.48	-0.52	58:30

Season series

Tied 1-1

Feb 131@2this game
Mar 162@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score