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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Air Canada Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 6-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 9:25 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.0 to 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 25, TOR 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Mike Condon stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (2 G, 3 A), 2. Nazem Kadri (1 G, 1 A), 3. Patrick Marleau (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    N. Kadri1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    P. Marleau1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT0411229325
TORTOR314116211641

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(11)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    1:55
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(26)
    W. Nylander (30)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    9:25
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(12)
    P. Marleau (10), N. Kadri (17)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    11:30

2nd period

  1. OTT
    J. Oduya(3)
    M. Stone (27), T. Chabot (9)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    8:32
  2. TOR
    J. van Riemsdyk(22)PPG
    M. Marner (28), M. Rielly (28)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +6 pts
    1-4
    13:51

3rd period

  1. OTT
    D. Brassard(14)
    D. Phaneuf (13), M. Stone (28)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +6 pts
    2-4
    0:45
  2. TOR
    N. Kadri(18)
    M. Marner (29), P. Marleau (11)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +6 pts
    2-5
    2:29
  3. OTT
    R. Dzingel(15)
    J. Pageau (11), M. Borowiecki (3)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    13:32
  4. TOR
    P. Marleau(18)EN
    M. Marner (30)
    snapxG 0.66win prob +1 pts
    3-6
    18:38

Penalties

OTT 10 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 13:24TORJake Gardiner · Holdingdrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min
  • 14:10OTTserved by C. DiDomenico · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 17:16OTTMark Borowiecki · Holdingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min

2nd

  • 9:55TORRon Hainsey · Trippingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min
  • 12:58OTTTom Pyatt · Holdingdrawn by James van Riemsdyk2 min

3rd

  • 19:32OTTDerick Brassard · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 19:57OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau · Slashingdrawn by Travis Dermott2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 1st 9:25 — TOR 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Marleau · Goal · xG 0.66P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.18N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.17N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.17J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.17M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.16N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.13L. Komarov · Missed · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.11P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.09P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.09J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.09J. van Riemsdyk · Goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.07C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.06J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.06P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.06N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.06C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05T. Bozak · Missed · xG 0.05L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.05D. Moore · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.04K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.04T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.03C. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.01J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.00T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.00J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.00K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.00T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.00R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR6 G · 4.0 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
1.73 G
All situations
5 G4.0
1.63 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT24%76%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.72 – 3.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
25
Shots on goal
41
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/2
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
4
37
Hits
21
17
Blocked shots
13
12
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65E. KarlssonD000-310.04120—26:07
95M. DucheneC000-320.084003321:59
5C. CeciD000000.00300—21:29
2D. PhaneufD011-110.02450—20:29
68M. HoffmanC000-320.07000019:35
61M. StoneR022-130.39210—19:05
15Z. SmithC000+200.035205018:54
19D. BrassardC101040.312124718:49
44J. PageauC011+130.231126717:37
72T. ChabotD011020.05010—16:12
29J. OduyaD101010.04210—15:21
18R. DzingelC101-120.17000015:14
74M. BorowieckiD011+100.02322—14:16
36C. WhiteC000-110.062005013:22
10T. PyattL000+100.00212—11:15
56M. PaajarviL000-120.06100—10:27
49C. DiDomenicoL000-110.13300—09:16
33F. ClaessonD000-100.00200—05:31
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1M. Condon(L)30282.9332.50+0.5048:08
41C. Anderson1073.7000.79-2.2111:30

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).