Hurricanes at Capitals 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Carolina Hurricanes

▸3

Washington Capitals

FinalTV NHLN-US, FS-SE·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Washington Capitals 3-1. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Rask's goal at 10:54 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 48% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.7 to 2.5; shots on goal were CAR 33, WSH 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Scott Darling stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 30 of 32 (.938). Three stars: 1. Scott Darling (27 saves, .964), 2. Victor Rask (1 G), 3. Lars Eller (1 G).

Three stars

★
S. Darling27 saves, .964
★★
V. Rask1 G
★★★
L. Eller1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	010	115	28	333
WSH	010	18	010	128

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

J. Staal(12)SHG
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.14win prob +21 pts
1-0
11:33
L. Eller(8)
T. Oshie (16), C. Djoos (6)
slapxG 0.06win prob +22 pts
1-1
16:05

3rd period

V. Rask(11)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.15win prob +34 pts
2-1
10:54
S. Aho(15)EN
E. Lindholm (13)
wristxG 0.57win prob +7 pts
3-1
18:31

Penalties

6 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

7:26Marcus Kruger · Holdingdrawn by Jakub Vrana2 min

2nd

1:28served by B. Connolly · Bench2 min
10:47Josh Jooris · Holdingdrawn by Madison Bowey2 min

3rd

12:34Klas Dahlbeck · Slashingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Victor Rask, 3rd 10:54 — CAR 48% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.7 xG · 49 att WSH

1 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.72 G
All situations: 1 G2.5; 1.71 G
Even strength: 1 G1.9; 0.60 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.11 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

50%50%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.47 – 2.46

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

33
Shots on goal: 28; 51%
Faceoffs: 49%; 0/1
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 2; 11
Hits: 19; 22
Blocked shots: 20; 4
Giveaways: 12; 6
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Carolina Hurricanes skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
74J. SlavinD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	5	0	—	27:26
27J. FaulkD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.08	1	1	0	—	24:13
57T. van RiemsdykD	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	0	5	0	—	22:37
11J. StaalC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.18	2	1	0	38	21:06
5N. HanifinD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.03	0	1	0	—	19:27
28E. LindholmC	0	1	1	+2	0	0.15	1	0	0	60	17:42
23B. McGinnL	0	0	0	0	2	0.47	2	0	0	100	16:53
14J. WilliamsR	0	0	0	-1	6	0.22	1	1	0	—	16:20
20S. AhoC	1	0	1	+1	7	0.92	1	0	0	0	15:43
86T. TeravainenC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.17	0	0	0	0	14:49
53J. SkinnerL	0	0	0	0	2	0.75	1	0	0	—	14:30
49V. RaskC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.19	1	0	0	75	13:19
4H. FleuryD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	3	0	—	13:00
7D. RyanC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.31	0	1	0	69	12:54
42J. NordstromC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	100	12:00
6K. DahlbeckD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	2	2	—	11:45
16M. KrugerC	0	0	0	+2	0	0.04	0	0	2	50	11:24
19J. JoorisR	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	0	2	—	09:04

Carolina Hurricanes goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
33S. Darling(W)	28	27	1	.964	2.55	+1.55	59:48

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score