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Sabres at Jets
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bryan Little's goal at 0:25 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 76% to 91%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.4, WPG 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 29, WPG 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Chad Johnson stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.5 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Blake Wheeler (1 G, 1 A), 2. Dustin Byfuglien (1 G), 3. Johan Larsson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    B. Wheeler1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    D. Byfuglien1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Larsson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11019110329
WPGWPG21118110429

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    D. Byfuglien(1)PPG
    B. Wheeler (35), P. Laine (17)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +9 pts
    0-1
    9:27
  2. BUF
    M. Scandella(1)
    E. Rodrigues (2), J. Pominville (10)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    11:40
  3. WPG
    J. Trouba(3)
    A. Copp (7), M. Hendricks (7)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    15:46

2nd period

  1. WPG
    B. Wheeler(14)PPG
    T. Myers (15), N. Ehlers (15)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    6:06
  2. BUF
    J. Larsson(2)
    J. Josefson (2), R. Ristolainen (12)
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    18:03

3rd period

  1. WPG
    B. Little(8)
    J. Trouba (12), J. Morrissey (12)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    0:25
  2. BUF
    S. Wilson(1)
    E. Rodrigues (3), J. Pominville (11)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +11 pts
    3-4
    12:17

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·WPG 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:20WPGJoel Armia · Hookingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 8:54BUFSam Reinhart · High stickingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min
  • 9:37WPGBryan Little · High stickingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 13:08BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Slashingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min

2nd

  • 4:37BUFZemgus Girgensons · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Trouba2 min
  • 8:25WPGKyle Connor · Hookingdrawn by Nathan Beaulieu2 min
  • 11:57WPGBlake Wheeler · Illegal check to headdrawn by Jason Pominville2 min
  • 14:17WPGBen Chiarot · Hookingdrawn by Jordan Nolan2 min

3rd

  • 3:28BUFserved by J. Larsson · Delaying game bench face off violation2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalBUF goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Bryan Little, 3rd 0:25 — WPG 76% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Little · Goal · xG 0.26N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.25J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.17P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.16P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.15M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.13A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.13S. Matthias · On goal · xG 0.12A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.10M. Perreault · Missed · xG 0.09T. Myers · Missed · xG 0.08A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.08B. Wheeler · Goal · xG 0.07A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.06J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.05B. Little · On goal · xG 0.05M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.04T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.03D. Byfuglien · Goal · xG 0.03B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.03J. Trouba · Goal · xG 0.03A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.03J. Armia · Missed · xG 0.03T. Myers · Missed · xG 0.03P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kulikov · Missed · xG 0.02D. Byfuglien · Missed · xG 0.02P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.02T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.02T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.02P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.02P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG4 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsWPG
2.43 G
All situations
4 G2.5
1.43 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
1.00 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF48%52%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 2.47

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsWPG
29
Shots on goal
29
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/5
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
18
Hits
23
13
Blocked shots
23
11
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD011010.04502—26:24
90R. O'ReillyC000040.590105023:08
6M. ScandellaD101040.09000—22:33
21K. OkposoR000010.23110—21:05
9E. KaneL000+130.152007521:01
15J. EichelC000-130.400003320:58
19J. McCabeD000+200.00010—20:34
23S. ReinhartC000-120.04012019:25
47Z. BogosianD000010.04030—16:28
29J. PominvilleR022+120.15200—14:12
4J. GorgesD000000.00020—13:50
82N. BeaulieuD000000.04020—12:30
22J. LarssonL101+110.273105012:21
71E. RodriguesC022+130.030004212:15
10J. JosefsonC011+110.050004211:48
28Z. GirgensonsC000-100.08012011:29
20S. WilsonC101030.18300008:45
17J. NolanC000+100.00200007:16
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31C. Johnson(L)29254.8622.48-1.5257:56

Season series

WPG leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).