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Blue Jackets at Senators
NHL

Columbus Blue Jackets at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Columbus Blue Jackets
4
Ottawa Senators
▸5
FinalTV FS-O, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Columbus Blue Jackets 5-4. The Senators came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mark Stone's goal at 7:41 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.2 to 1.7; shots on goal were CBJ 25, OTT 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 28 (.821), 2.9 goals below expected; Mike Condon stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (1 G), 2. Erik Karlsson (2 A), 3. Dion Phaneuf (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    M. Duchene1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    E. Karlsson2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    D. Phaneuf2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CBJCBJ0103718425
OTTOTT0938211528

Scoring

9 goals

2nd period

  1. CBJ
    S. Milano(7)
    B. Jenner (8), M. Nutivaara (12)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +17 pts
    1-0
    4:15
  2. OTT
    D. Brassard(10)
    E. Karlsson (21), M. Stone (19)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    5:42
  3. CBJ
    J. Anderson(14)
    A. Panarin (24)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    7:11
  4. CBJ
    S. Milano(8)
    S. Jones (16)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    7:24
  5. OTT
    N. Paul(1)
    D. Phaneuf (9), N. Thompson (7)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    14:14
  6. OTT
    M. Duchene(7)
    J. Oduya (3)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +23 pts
    3-3
    18:52

3rd period

  1. OTT
    M. Stone(15)
    D. Phaneuf (10)
    wristxG 0.48win prob +29 pts
    3-4
    7:41
  2. OTT
    B. Ryan(5)
    E. Karlsson (22)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    3-5
    9:21
  3. CBJ
    Z. Werenski(11)PPG
    J. Anderson (10), P. Dubois (11)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +3 pts
    4-5
    19:28

Penalties

CBJ 2 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 0:34OTTJohnny Oduya · Slashingdrawn by Josh Anderson2 min
  • 7:38CBJArtemi Panarin · Trippingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min
  • 11:09OTTJohnny Oduya · High stickingdrawn by Boone Jenner2 min

2nd

  • 2:14OTTBobby Ryan · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 1:06OTTErik Karlsson · Slashingdrawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand2 min
  • 18:44OTTDion Phaneuf · Trippingdrawn by Artemi Panarin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCBJ goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Mark Stone, 3rd 7:41 — OTT 52% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.48M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.18N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.16B. Ryan · Goal · xG 0.15D. Brassard · Goal · xG 0.15A. Burrows · On goal · xG 0.13M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.11B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.10B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.06D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.06M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.06F. Chlapik · On goal · xG 0.06M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.05J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.05A. Burrows · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.03F. Chlapik · Missed · xG 0.03D. Phaneuf · Missed · xG 0.03F. Chlapik · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.02T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.01N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01F. Chlapik · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · Goal · xG 0.01R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.00F. Chlapik · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT5 G · 2.2 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CBJvsOTT
1.74 G
All situations
5 G2.2
1.43 G
Even strength
5 G1.9
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CBJ42%58%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.70 – 2.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CBJvsOTT
25
Shots on goal
28
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/5
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
10
21
Hits
29
19
Blocked shots
14
6
Giveaways
9
3
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Columbus Blue Jackets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8Z. WerenskiD101010.04130—23:48
3S. JonesD011-200.00200—23:38
9A. PanarinL011-110.10012—23:32
77J. AndersonR112-150.22100—21:45
18P. DuboisC011010.001003920:58
65M. NutivaaraD011+120.06300—19:21
71N. FolignoL000+100.073304017:57
7J. JohnsonD000-210.01120—17:10
38B. JennerC011020.2322010017:06
58D. SavardD000000.00000—16:52
28O. BjorkstrandR000000.00200—16:38
4S. HarringtonD000-100.00020—15:41
64T. MotteC000-140.30210012:03
11M. CalvertL000000.00000—11:58
22S. MilanoL202+120.32000—11:50
45L. SedlakC000010.091203811:10
14J. SchroederC000-310.081006709:39
37M. HannikainenL000-240.18130—08:34
Columbus Blue Jackets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)28235.8212.15-2.8558:20

Season series

CBJ leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).