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Avalanche at Capitals
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Washington Capitals
▸5
FinalTV NBCSWA, ALT·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-2. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Carlson's goal at 17:42 of the second period, which took the Capitals' chances from 53% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 2.9 to 2.1; shots on goal were COL 24, WSH 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.6 goals below expected; Braden Holtby stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. John Carlson (1 G), 2. Evgeny Kuznetsov (3 A), 3. Madison Bowey (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    J. Carlson1 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    E. Kuznetsov3 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    M. Bowey2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0716111224
WSHWSH17110310527

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    J. Vrana(9)
    E. Kuznetsov (22), M. Bowey (6)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:25

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Wilson(3)
    M. Nieto (5), M. Barberio (5)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    4:13
  2. WSH
    J. Carlson(3)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.04win prob +22 pts
    1-2
    17:42

3rd period

  1. WSH
    B. Connolly(6)
    M. Bowey (7), E. Kuznetsov (23)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    5:15
  2. WSH
    M. Niskanen(2)
    E. Kuznetsov (24), A. Burakovsky (4)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    16:19
  3. COL
    T. Jost(2)
    M. Rantanen (16), C. Soderberg (9)
    backhandxG 0.08
    2-4
    18:57
  4. WSH
    D. Smith-Pelly(5)EN
    C. Stephenson (7), J. Beagle (7)
    wristxG 0.42
    2-5
    19:15

Penalties

COL 2 PIM·WSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 20:00WSHJohn Carlson · Trippingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min

2nd

  • 8:39WSHJohn Carlson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 18:52WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · Slashingdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min

3rd

  • 15:06WSHChandler Stephenson · Boardingdrawn by Patrik Nemeth2 min
  • 15:31COLNathan MacKinnon · Holdingdrawn by Lars Eller2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalCOL goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: John Carlson, 2nd 17:42 — WSH 53% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Smith-Pelly · Goal · xG 0.42C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.17D. Smith-Pelly · On goal · xG 0.15T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.13A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.12N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.12M. Niskanen · Goal · xG 0.12J. Beagle · Missed · xG 0.11A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.10J. Vrana · Goal · xG 0.10J. Beagle · On goal · xG 0.10A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.09N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.08J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.08B. Connolly · Goal · xG 0.08J. Beagle · On goal · xG 0.08T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.08D. Smith-Pelly · On goal · xG 0.07J. Beagle · On goal · xG 0.06J. Beagle · On goal · xG 0.05C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.05J. Vrana · Missed · xG 0.05L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.05L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.04L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.04J. Carlson · Goal · xG 0.04C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.03L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.03N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bowey · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Orpik · Missed · xG 0.02M. Bowey · On goal · xG 0.02B. Orpik · Missed · xG 0.02L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.02M. Bowey · Missed · xG 0.02J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.01B. Orpik · Missed · xG 0.01M. Bowey · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH5 G · 2.9 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsWSH
2.12 G
All situations
4 G2.9
1.92 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL43%57%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.06 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsWSH
24
Shots on goal
27
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/4
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
8
20
Hits
24
13
Blocked shots
22
6
Giveaways
16
9
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6E. JohnsonD000-320.17230—23:15
4T. BarrieD000-210.13010—21:32
29N. MacKinnonC000-330.230024221:00
96M. RantanenR011-230.120007520:45
92G. LandeskogL000-300.00010—20:11
37J. CompherL000-220.180205719:29
34C. SoderbergC011020.062002717:37
10S. AndrighettoR000-140.49100—17:12
16N. ZadorovD000+120.06210—16:45
14B. ComeauL000000.023002516:16
12P. NemethD000-200.00010—16:05
22C. WilsonC101+130.260106015:19
44M. BarberioD011+100.00120—13:42
17T. JostC101010.08100013:22
49S. GirardD000-110.05000—12:30
83M. NietoL011000.12110—11:50
57G. BourqueL000000.0930010011:40
54A. LindholmD000+100.00400—09:42
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1S. Varlamov(L)26224.8462.43-1.5759:48

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).