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Senators at Sabres
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

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Ottawa Senators
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Ottawa Senators 3-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Benoit Pouliot's goal at 4:13 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.1 to 1.4; shots on goal were OTT 26, BUF 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Mike Condon stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.6 goals below expected; Robin Lehner stopped 24 of 26 (.923). Three stars: 1. Benoit Pouliot (1 G), 2. Kyle Okposo (1 G), 3. Rasmus Ristolainen (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    B. Pouliot1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    K. Okposo1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Ristolainen2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT0601327226
BUFBUF05310010325

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    B. Pouliot(8)
    M. Scandella (7), R. Ristolainen (8)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    4:13
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(5)
    R. O'Reilly (13), J. Gorges (1)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    5:25
  3. BUF
    E. Kane(14)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (9), J. Eichel (16)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +6 pts
    0-3
    12:33

3rd period

  1. OTT
    C. Ceci(3)
    M. Stone (12), N. Thompson (5)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +4 pts
    1-3
    6:43
  2. OTT
    D. Brassard(7)
    E. Karlsson (18), M. Hoffman (13)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +4 pts
    2-3
    19:08

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 17:10OTTMike Hoffman · Slashingdrawn by Josh Gorges2 min

2nd

  • 7:38BUFBenoit Pouliot · Interferencedrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 8:40BUFJohan Larsson · High stickingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min
  • 11:27OTTZack Smith · Hookingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

3rd

  • 2:38BUFJordan Nolan · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalOTT goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Benoit Pouliot, 2nd 4:13 — BUF 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.18J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.15J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.14K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.14E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.13R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.10R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.05K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.05K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04B. Pouliot · Goal · xG 0.03K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pouliot · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01J. Falk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.00J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.00B. Pouliot · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 1.4 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsBUF
2.12 G
All situations
3 G1.4
1.52 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT63%37%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.07 – 1.43

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsBUF
26
Shots on goal
25
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
21
15
Blocked shots
26
4
Giveaways
9
1
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65E. KarlssonD011020.03010—29:00
61M. StoneR011+120.38010—24:40
5C. CeciD101020.21500—22:16
95M. DucheneC000+120.070006522:13
68M. HoffmanC011060.47002018:45
44J. PageauC000010.152205018:38
9B. RyanR000-100.10120—18:11
19D. BrassardC101+110.120008318:02
29J. OduyaD000-110.06010—17:09
2D. PhaneufD000-110.03310—16:48
15Z. SmithC000-120.200124416:43
33F. ClaessonD000030.05320—15:34
18R. DzingelC000010.06000015:17
67B. HarpurD000+100.00100—13:19
10T. PyattL000010.05230—10:25
14A. BurrowsR000010.08000—08:09
17N. ThompsonC011+100.0000010008:07
40G. DumontC000000.00010005:39
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1M. Condon(L)25223.8801.43-1.5757:59

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).