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Capitals at Maple Leafs
NHL

Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Washington Capitals
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV NHLN-US, NBCSWA+·Air Canada Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Zaitsev's goal at 6:09 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 8% to 24%. Expected goals were close — WSH 2.6, TOR 2.7; shots on goal were WSH 21, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Braden Holtby stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Ovechkin (3 G), 2. T.J. Oshie (3 A), 3. Nikita Zaitsev (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    A. Ovechkin3 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    T. Oshie3 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    N. Zaitsev1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH2711014421
TORTOR01101127229

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(16)
    N. Backstrom (15)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    12:43
  2. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(17)PPG
    T. Oshie (10)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    2-0
    19:13

2nd period

  1. WSH
    J. Vrana(7)
    T. Oshie (11), M. Niskanen (4)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +10 pts
    3-0
    11:02

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Gardiner(2)
    A. Matthews (11), Z. Hyman (8)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +7 pts
    3-1
    1:24
  2. TOR
    N. Zaitsev(3)
    W. Nylander (12), D. Moore (4)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    6:09
  3. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(18)EN
    T. Oshie (12), N. Backstrom (16)
    backhandxG 0.85win prob +6 pts
    4-2
    19:51

Penalties

WSH 2 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:03WSHDevante Smith-Pelly · Hookingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 19:05TORRon Hainsey · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 3:55TORPatrick Marleau · Interferencedrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
  • 11:34TORMatt Martin · Cross checkingdrawn by John Carlson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalWSH goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Nikita Zaitsev, 3rd 6:09 — TOR 8% → 24%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.25L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.17M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.16A. Borgman · Missed · xG 0.12N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.11R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09A. Borgman · On goal · xG 0.09M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.07M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.05T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.04J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.03J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.03J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03A. Borgman · Missed · xG 0.03J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.03J. Gardiner · Goal · xG 0.03N. Zaitsev · Goal · xG 0.03R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.03L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.02P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.02J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.01R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.01R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR2 G · 2.7 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsTOR
2.63 G
All situations
2 G2.7
1.32 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH32%68%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.73 – 2.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsTOR
21
Shots on goal
29
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
37
Hits
26
12
Blocked shots
12
13
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9D. OrlovD000+210.03420—26:25
2M. NiskanenD011+200.03220—24:14
74J. CarlsonD000-130.08210—22:38
44B. OrpikD000-120.04610—19:57
8A. OvechkinL303+241.19200—18:44
92E. KuznetsovC000010.240004418:41
19N. BackstromC022+200.053004817:26
43T. WilsonR000+110.0220010016:36
77T. OshieR033+210.112003316:21
83J. BeagleC000-110.084004415:45
39A. ChiassonR000-110.14200—14:29
18C. StephensonC000-110.16210014:24
20L. EllerC000010.031003613:52
13J. VranaL101+110.16010—12:59
25D. Smith-PellyR000-120.09212—12:33
4T. ChorneyD000000.00120—11:59
22M. BoweyD000000.02010—11:33
91T. GraovacC000-110.09200009:24
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70B. Holtby(W)29272.9312.71+0.7160:00

Season series

WSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).