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Avalanche at Senators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV NHLN-US, ALT·Ericsson Globe

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3. The Avalanche scored first; the Senators answered. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Johnny Oduya's goal at 7:01 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 23% to 52%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.6 to 1.1; shots on goal were COL 18, OTT 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 36 of 40 (.900), 1.4 goals below expected; Mike Condon stopped 7 of 10 (.700), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mike Hoffman (2 G), 2. Erik Karlsson (2 A), 3. Sven Andrighetto (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    M. Hoffman2 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    E. Karlsson2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    S. Andrighetto1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL172506318
OTTOTT016210214440

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    B. Comeau(4)SHG
    M. Barberio (2), E. Johnson (5)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    13:13

2nd period

  1. OTT
    M. Hoffman(5)PPG
    D. Brassard (9), E. Karlsson (15)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    0:12
  2. COL
    A. Kerfoot(7)PPG
    E. Johnson (6), S. Andrighetto (7)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    8:34
  3. OTT
    M. Stone(12)
    E. Karlsson (16)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    9:16
  4. COL
    S. Andrighetto(5)
    A. Kerfoot (6), A. Mironov (1)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    10:36

3rd period

  1. OTT
    J. Oduya(2)
    N. Thompson (3), J. Pageau (8)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +29 pts
    3-3
    7:01
  2. OTT
    M. Hoffman(6)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.11win prob +27 pts
    3-4
    13:23

Penalties

COL 14 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:45OTTDerick Brassard · Trippingdrawn by Chris Bigras2 min
  • 12:52COLAndrei Mironov · Interferencedrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 18:51COLChris Bigras · Hookingdrawn by Mike Hoffman2 min

2nd

  • 6:54OTTTom Pyatt · Trippingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 16:44COLMark Barberio · Slashingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min

3rd

  • 4:00COLMark Barberio · Hookingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min
  • 8:53COLAlexander Kerfoot · Hookingdrawn by Fredrik Claesson2 min
  • 13:13COLMark Barberio · Trippingdrawn by Christopher DiDomenico2 min
  • 15:04OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau · High stickingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 19:54OTTDion Phaneuf · Roughingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min
  • 19:54COLGabriel Landeskog · Roughingdrawn by Dion Phaneuf2 min
  • 19:54OTTAlexandre Burrows · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCOL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Johnny Oduya, 3rd 7:01 — OTT 23% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.21J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.21C. DiDomenico · On goal · xG 0.20C. Wideman · On goal · xG 0.15M. Hoffman · Goal · xG 0.11D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.11D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.11C. Wideman · On goal · xG 0.10A. Burrows · On goal · xG 0.09M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.09M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.08D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.07T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.06C. Wideman · On goal · xG 0.06N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.06C. DiDomenico · On goal · xG 0.05M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.04C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.03M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.03M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.03T. Pyatt · Missed · xG 0.03M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.03M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.03D. Phaneuf · On goal · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.02J. Oduya · Goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oduya · On goal · xG 0.01M. Hoffman · Goal · xG 0.01D. Phaneuf · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oduya · Missed · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01F. Claesson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Phaneuf · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01F. Claesson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01D. Phaneuf · Missed · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 2.6 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsOTT
1.13 G
All situations
4 G2.6
0.41 G
Even strength
2 G1.1
0.61 G
Power play
2 G1.5
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL22%78%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.10 – 2.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsOTT
18
Shots on goal
40
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/4
Power play
2/6
14
Penalty minutes
10
19
Hits
20
20
Blocked shots
15
11
Giveaways
6
9
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6E. JohnsonD022030.09210—27:44
4T. BarrieD000-130.15130—25:04
49S. GirardD000020.09110—22:39
92G. LandeskogL000010.1540210020:59
29N. MacKinnonC000020.250003520:00
96M. RantanenR000000.061303319:02
44M. BarberioD011+100.00016—16:32
3C. BigrasD000020.04032—16:07
14B. ComeauL101010.171202515:32
13A. KerfootC112+110.051124614:59
10S. AndrighettoR112010.04100—13:59
83M. NietoL000000.00020—13:56
64N. YakupovR000020.01100—12:38
37J. CompherL000-100.002107811:45
22C. WilsonC000-100.000001411:12
57G. BourqueL000000.00100—10:58
94A. MironovD011000.00222—10:43
20R. GrimaldiR000000.00100—08:09
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(L)40364.9002.58-1.4258:31

Season series

OTT leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).