Senators at Oilers 6-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Ottawa Senators

▸6

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV CBC, TVAS·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Edmonton Oilers 6-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Derick Brassard's goal at 9:31 of the first period, which took the Senators' chances from 61% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.6 to 2.2; shots on goal were OTT 31, EDM 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Mike Condon stopped 35 of 36 (.972), 2.6 goals saved above expected; Cam Talbot stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mike Hoffman (2 G, 1 A), 2. Kyle Turris (2 G, 1 A), 3. Mike Condon (35 saves, .972).

Three stars

★
M. Hoffman2 G, 1 A
★★
K. Turris2 G, 1 A
★★★
M. Condon35 saves, .972

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	211	110	310	631
EDM	011	019	16	136

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

M. Hoffman(2)
T. Pyatt (2), D. Phaneuf (2)
tip-inxG 0.26win prob +13 pts
1-0
6:09
D. Brassard(3)PPG
M. Stone (2), T. Chabot (2)
snapxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
2-0
9:31

2nd period

M. Hoffman(3)
K. Turris (5), A. Burrows (1)
wristxG 0.11win prob +11 pts
3-0
3:36

3rd period

K. Turris(1)
Z. Smith (3), M. Stone (3)
deflectedxG 0.15win prob +2 pts
4-0
1:04
C. Wideman(3)PPG
M. Hoffman (1), Z. Smith (4)
slapxG 0.04
5-0
3:43
K. Turris(2)PPG
M. Condon (1)
snapxG 0.11
6-0
8:34
A. Larsson(1)
C. McDavid (2), K. Yamamoto (1)
slapxG 0.03
6-1
11:03

Penalties

13 PIM·

27 PIM

1st

0:48Milan Lucic · Fightingdrawn by Mark Borowiecki5 min
0:48Mark Borowiecki · Fightingdrawn by Milan Lucic5 min
7:47Zack Kassian · Hookingdrawn by Dion Phaneuf2 min
19:26Mark Borowiecki · Slashingdrawn by Zack Kassian2 min

2nd

7:21Kyle Turris · Trippingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min
14:01Zack Kassian · Interferencedrawn by Dion Phaneuf2 min
17:17Bobby Ryan · Hookingdrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min

3rd

2:52Milan Lucic · Interferencedrawn by Fredrik Claesson2 min
4:46Eric Gryba · Roughingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
4:46Eric Gryba · Cross checkingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
10:43Darnell Nurse · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
10:43Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Darnell Nurse2 min
10:43Eric Gryba · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Derick Brassard, 1st 9:31 — OTT 61% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.6 xG · 59 att

←

attacks

attacks →

6 G · 2.2 xG · 43 att EDM

1 G · 3.6 xG · 59 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.26 G
All situations: 1 G3.6; 1.63 G
Even strength: 1 G2.7; 0.63 G
Power play: 0 G0.8; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

30%70%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.23 – 3.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 36; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 3/5
Power play: 0/3; 13
Penalty minutes: 27; 24
Hits: 37; 27
Blocked shots: 9; 13
Giveaways: 19; 6
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Ottawa Senators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
2D. PhaneufD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	2	1	0	—	20:24
5C. CeciD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	1	7	0	—	19:57
15Z. SmithC	0	2	2	+1	3	0.36	0	0	0	0	19:40
9B. RyanR	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	3	1	2	100	17:31
18R. DzingelC	0	0	0	0	2	0.24	0	0	0	0	17:23
44J. PageauC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.01	5	1	2	46	17:00
68M. HoffmanC	2	1	3	+2	4	0.41	0	2	0	0	16:59
7K. TurrisC	2	1	3	+1	3	0.28	1	1	2	64	16:39
29J. OduyaD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.03	1	3	0	—	16:32
33F. ClaessonD	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	0	2	0	—	16:29
19D. BrassardC	1	0	1	0	2	0.16	1	1	0	53	16:26
10T. PyattL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	50	15:02
17N. ThompsonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	0	0	38	15:02
61M. StoneR	0	2	2	0	0	0.08	2	1	0	—	14:48
6C. WidemanD	1	0	1	+1	3	0.08	3	0	0	—	14:42
14A. BurrowsR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.34	1	1	0	—	13:14
72T. ChabotD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	3	0	—	12:13
74M. BorowieckiD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	2	2	7	—	12:03

Ottawa Senators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1M. Condon(W)	36	35	1	.972	3.59	+2.59	59:56

Season series

Tied 1-1

Oct 146@1this game
Mar 226@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score