Maple Leafs vs Jets
Where does one club beat the other, and by how much? Every team measure we track, side by side, with where each club ranks among all 32.
2026-27 seasonour ratings are for 2026-27
If they met on neutral ice
Our pregame model with no home ice, no back-to-back and no lineup information — just the two clubs' ratings. A real game's number also knows who is at home, who played last night and who is likely in net, so it will differ.
Every measure# is the rank among 32
Jets rank higher on 12 of 20 measures. Maple Leafs' widest edge: team save % (11th against 23rd). Jets' widest edge: penalty-kill expected goals against per game (8th against 23rd).
| Measure | TOR | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Goals for per game | 2.00#22 of 31 | 3.00#19 of 31 |
| Goals against per game | 2.00#13 of 31 | 4.00#23 of 31 |
| Goal difference per game | 0.00#18 of 31 | −1.00#21 of 31 |
| Shooting % | 7.4%#21 of 31 | 9.1%#19 of 31 |
| Shots | ||
| Shots for per game | 27.0#13 of 31 | 33.0#5 of 31 |
| Shots against per game | 25.5#16 of 31 | 30.0#25 of 31 |
| Shot share | 51.4%#12 of 31 | 52.4%#10 of 31 |
| Special teams | ||
| Power play % | 14.3%#14 of 31 | 33.3%#9 of 31 |
| Penalty kill % | 100.0%#11 of 31 | 100.0%#14 of 31 |
| Faceoff % | 49.5%#19 of 31 | 48.3%#21 of 31 |
| Goaltending | ||
| Team save % | .922#11 of 31 | .867#23 of 31 |
| Results | ||
| Points % | .500#17 of 31 | .500#20 of 31 |
| Our model | ||
| Win chance vs an average team | 46.5%#28 of 32 | 49.4%#21 of 32 |
| Ability to win | .480#25 of 32 | .492#19 of 32 |
| Expected goals share (5-on-5) | 49.0%#27 of 32 | 49.4%#22 of 32 |
| Expected goals for per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.44#23 of 32 | 2.43#26 of 32 |
| Expected goals against per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.55#27 of 32 | 2.49#19 of 32 |
| Power-play expected goals per game | 0.69#19 of 32 | 0.70#15 of 32 |
| Penalty-kill expected goals against per game | 0.72#23 of 32 | 0.68#8 of 32 |
| Goaltending (goals saved above expected per 60) | +0.05#10 of 32 | +0.11#7 of 32 |
How this is measured
League measures are the NHL's own regular-season numbers for 2026-27; the "Our model" measures are our current ratings. The bold number is the one that ranks higher. Ranks run from 1 (best) to 32; for a measure where lower is better, like goals against, the lowest is ranked first.
The neutral-ice number compares the two clubs' power ratings: each rating is a chance of beating an average club, and our pregame model adds the two clubs' strengths on the log-odds scale, so the average cancels out. Methodology →