Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Kansas City Chiefs
Atlanta FalconsMarket
- Book
- +4.5
- o45.5
- Exchange
- —
- Volume
- —
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Atlanta Falcons is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- +0.9
- Falcons
- Win prob
- 53%
- Chiefs
- Likely range
- -17 to 16
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1429 − 1550 = -4.8 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -3.1 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- -0.9 Falcons
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1550#12
- FPI rank
- #72026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1429#21
- FPI rank
- #262026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last meeting
Falcons 0–1- 2024 wk 3Chiefs at Falcons22–17Chiefs
From the 2024 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
Nothing has traded on the exchange for this game yet.
Who has moved
No price history archived for this game.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
Nothing has traded here at a size worth calling out.
Resting size
No order book for this market right now.