Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo BillsMarket
- Book
- -3
- o48.5
- Exchange
- —
- Volume
- —
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Buffalo Bills is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -5.6
- Bills
- Win prob
- 67%
- Bills
- Likely range
- -11 to 22
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1671 − 1541 = +5.2 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +3.3 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +5.6 Bills
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1541#14
- FPI rank
- #42026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1671#4
- FPI rank
- #22026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last meeting
Bills 1–0- 2023 wk 16Bills at Chargers24–22Bills
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
Nothing has traded on the exchange for this game yet.
Who has moved
consensus -3| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | -3 | 0 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
Nothing has traded here at a size worth calling out.
Resting size
No order book for this market right now.