Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England PatriotsMarket
- Book
- -4.5
- o43.5
- Exchange
- —
- 63% NE
- Volume
- 41k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means New England Patriots is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -7.2
- Patriots
- Win prob
- 71%
- Patriots
- Likely range
- -9 to 24
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1709 − 1515 = +7.8 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +5.0 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +7.2 Patriots
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1515#18
- FPI rank
- #212026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1709#2
- FPI rank
- #142026
- Record
- 0-1
- Point diff
- -3-3/g
Last 3 meetings
Patriots 2–1- 2025 wk 3Steelers at Patriots21–14Steelers
- 2023 wk 14Patriots at Steelers21–18Patriots
- 2022 wk 2Patriots at Steelers17–14Patriots
From the 2022 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
71 trades · $687Thin market — too few trades here to read anything into the split.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 71 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -4.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | -4.5 | 0 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
12 orders · 33% of the money- New England Patriots527 @ 0.63$33271×
- New England Patriots482 @ 0.64$30966×
- New England Patriots375 @ 0.66$24853×
- New England Patriots300 @ 0.63$18940×
- New England Patriots265 @ 0.64$17036×
- New England Patriots250 @ 0.66$16535×
- New England Patriots233 @ 0.67$15633×
- New England Patriots210 @ 0.63$13228×
- New England Patriots200 @ 0.64$12827×
- New England Patriots163 @ 0.64$10422×
- New England Patriots154 @ 0.63$9721×
- New England Patriots131 @ 0.64$8418×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $4.69), largest first, from the last 558 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.62 / 0.63 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.