Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ersMarket
- Book
- -10.5
- o46.5
- Exchange
- —
- 86% SF
- Volume
- 65k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means San Francisco 49ers is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -8.9
- 49ers
- Win prob
- 76%
- 49ers
- Likely range
- -8 to 25
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1647 − 1387 = +10.4 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +6.7 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +8.9 49ers
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1387#24
- FPI rank
- #322026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1647#7
- FPI rank
- #12026
- Record
- 1-0
- Point diff
- +20+20/g
Last 2 meetings
49ers 1–1- 2024 wk 1649ers at Dolphins17–29Dolphins
- 2022 wk 13Dolphins at 49ers17–3349ers
From the 2022 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
281 trades · $2,765Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Thin market — too few trades here to read anything into the split.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 281 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -10.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | -10.5 | 0 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
12 orders · 29% of the money- San Francisco 49ers969 @ 0.86$833192×
- San Francisco 49ers920 @ 0.87$801184×
- San Francisco 49ers683 @ 0.87$595137×
- San Francisco 49ers303 @ 0.87$26361×
- San Francisco 49ers300 @ 0.86$25859×
- San Francisco 49ers289 @ 0.87$25158×
- San Francisco 49ers285 @ 0.86$24556×
- San Francisco 49ers224 @ 0.87$19545×
- San Francisco 49ers199 @ 0.86$17139×
- San Francisco 49ers183 @ 0.86$15736×
- San Francisco 49ers164 @ 0.86$14132×
- San Francisco 49ers154 @ 0.87$13431×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $4.35), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.85 / 0.87 · 2¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.