Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver BroncosMarket
- Book
- -3
- o43.5
- Exchange
- —
- 58% DEN
- Volume
- 5k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Denver Broncos is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -0.4
- Broncos
- Win prob
- 51%
- Broncos
- Likely range
- -16 to 17
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1632 − 1703 = -2.8 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -1.8 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +0.4 Broncos
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1703#3
- FPI rank
- #152026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1632#8
- FPI rank
- #132026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 2 meetings
Broncos 1–1- 2025 wk 16Jaguars at Broncos34–20Jaguars
- 2022 wk 8Broncos at Jaguars21–17Broncos
From the 2022 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
25 trades · $244Thin market — too few trades here to read anything into the split.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 25 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -3| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3 | -0.5 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
12 orders · 31% of the money- Denver Broncos94 @ 0.60$5612×
- Denver Broncos81 @ 0.60$4910×
- Denver Broncos82 @ 0.59$4910×
- Denver Broncos82 @ 0.59$4910×
- Denver Broncos85 @ 0.57$4910×
- Denver Broncos80 @ 0.60$4810×
- Denver Broncos84 @ 0.57$4810×
- Denver Broncos77 @ 0.57$449×
- Denver Broncos74 @ 0.59$449×
- Denver Broncos65 @ 0.58$388×
- Jacksonville Jaguars74 @ 0.43$327×
- Denver Broncos50 @ 0.57$286×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $4.86), largest first, from the last 176 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.57 / 0.61 · 4¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.