Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston TexansMarket
- Book
- -2.5
- o45.5
- Exchange
- —
- 56% HOU
- Volume
- 12k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Houston Texans is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -9.3
- Texans
- Win prob
- 77%
- Texans
- Likely range
- -7 to 26
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1660 − 1385 = +11.0 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +7.1 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +9.3 Texans
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1385#26
- FPI rank
- #112026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1660#5
- FPI rank
- #122026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last meeting
Texans 1–0- 2023 wk 10Texans at Bengals30–27Texans
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
17 trades · $200Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Thin market — too few trades here to read anything into the split.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 17 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -2.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | -2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
12 orders · 31% of the money- Houston Texans87 @ 0.56$4910×
- Houston Texans83 @ 0.57$4710×
- Houston Texans83 @ 0.57$4710×
- Houston Texans77 @ 0.56$439×
- Houston Texans68 @ 0.57$398×
- Cincinnati Bengals83 @ 0.46$388×
- Houston Texans67 @ 0.56$388×
- Cincinnati Bengals67 @ 0.46$316×
- Houston Texans52 @ 0.56$296×
- Houston Texans45 @ 0.56$255×
- Houston Texans45 @ 0.56$255×
- Houston Texans43 @ 0.57$245×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $4.85), largest first, from the last 136 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.55 / 0.56 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.