Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions
Buffalo BillsMarket
- Book
- -3.5
- o53.5
- Exchange
- -4.1
- 65% BUF
- Volume
- 163k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Buffalo Bills is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -4.1
- Bills
- Win prob
- 62%
- Bills
- Likely range
- -12 to 21
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1671 − 1600 = +2.8 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +1.8 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +4.1 Bills
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1600#9
- FPI rank
- #72026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1671#4
- FPI rank
- #22026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 2 meetings
Bills 2–0- 2024 wk 15Bills at Lions48–42Bills
- 2022 wk 12Bills at Lions28–25Bills
From the 2022 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
1,901 trades · $35,457Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 1,901 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -3.7| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.5 | -0.5 | +0.22 |
| Kalshi | -4 | -0.59 | -0.23 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 53.5
84 trades · $3,352Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Totals trade thinly here — not enough to read a split from.
Read at 53.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 40% of the money- Buffalo Bills3,506 @ 0.64$2,244383×
- Buffalo Bills3,000 @ 0.64$1,920328×
- Buffalo Bills1,500 @ 0.65$975167×
- Buffalo Bills1,194 @ 0.65$776133×
- Buffalo Bills1,119 @ 0.65$728124×
- Buffalo Bills751 @ 0.65$48883×
- Buffalo Bills751 @ 0.65$48883×
- Buffalo Bills699 @ 0.65$45478×
- Buffalo Bills561 @ 0.65$36562×
- Buffalo Bills526 @ 0.65$34258×
- Buffalo Bills500 @ 0.63$31554×
- Buffalo Bills435 @ 0.65$28348×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $5.85), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.64 / 0.65 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.