Blue Jays at Athletics
Last play · Ernie Clement flies out to right fielder Lawrence Butler.
Win probability
Athletics100%
TOR 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 2 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-162 / +134
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Henry Bolte homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 3) — +11% Athletics
4Donovan Walton flies out to right fielder Brett Bateman. Max Muncy to 3rd.0–2
3Henry Bolte homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
