Mariners at Athletics
SEA19–
ATH1Last play · Alika Williams strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Athletics0%
SEA 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 9 – 1 ATH
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dominic Canzone homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field. J.P. Crawford scores. (inning 1) — -21% Mariners
9Michael Arroyo out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Brock Rodden scores.19–1
9Cole Young singles on a line drive to left fielder Max Muncy. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez scores. Brock Rodden to 3rd.18–1
8Lazaro Montes walks. Cole Young scores. Michael Arroyo to 3rd. Weston Wilson to 2nd.16–1
8Michael Arroyo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Denzel Clarke. Brock Rodden scores. Cole Young to 2nd.15–1
8Cole Young singles on a ground ball to second baseman Donovan Walton. Julio Rodríguez scores. Brock Rodden to 3rd.14–1
8Josh Naylor doubles (21) on a ground ball to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Victor Robles scores. Julio Rodríguez to 3rd.13–1
7J.P. Crawford homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Weston Wilson scores.12–1
7Michael Arroyo homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.10–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.