Mariners at Athletics
Last play · Donovan Walton homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Stefanic scores.
Win probability
Athletics100%
SEA 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 4 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Donovan Walton homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Stefanic scores. (inning 10) — +41% Athletics
10Donovan Walton homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Stefanic scores.5–6
10Julio Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Denzel Clarke. Randy Arozarena scores.5–4
6Lazaro Montes homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Josh Naylor scores.4–4
3Lawrence Butler homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Jeff McNeil scores.2–4
2Weston Wilson grounds into a force out, third baseman Zack Gelof to second baseman Jeff McNeil. Josh Naylor scores. Taylor Ward out at 2nd. Weston Wilson to 1st.2–2
1Max Muncy singles on a ground ball to second baseman Cole Young. Jeff McNeil scores. Max Muncy to 2nd. Max Muncy advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by second baseman Cole Young.1–2
1Jeff McNeil doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Henry Bolte scores.1–1
1Cal Raleigh grounds into a force out, third baseman Zack Gelof to second baseman Jeff McNeil. Randy Arozarena scores. Dominic Canzone out at 2nd. Cal Raleigh to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
