Phillies at Braves
Last play · Drake Baldwin doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Ha-Seong Kim scores.
Win probability
Braves100%
PHI 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 1 ATL
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -188
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sean Murphy singles on a ground ball to center fielder Derek Hill. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. scores. Sean Murphy to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Derek Hill. (inning 9) — +43% Braves
11Drake Baldwin doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Ha-Seong Kim scores.5–6
11Ha-Seong Kim singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Ozzie Albies scores.5–5
11Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Garrett Stubbs scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.5–4
10Mauricio Dubón out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Brewer Hicklen scores.4–4
10Justin Crawford singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Bryson Stott scores.4–3
9Sean Murphy singles on a ground ball to center fielder Derek Hill. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. scores. Sean Murphy to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Derek Hill.3–3
7Austin Riley homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
2Derek Hill doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Edmundo Sosa scores. Bryan De La Cruz scores. J.T. Realmuto scores.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
