Guardians at Orioles
Last play · Jackson Holliday called out on strikes.
Win probability
Orioles0%
CLE 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 6 – 5 BAL
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (34) on a fly ball to left field. Jackson Holliday scores. (inning 5) — +28% Orioles
7Brayan Rocchio singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Jo Adell scores. Angel Martínez scores. Petey Halpin to 3rd.9–5
7Angel Martínez reaches on a fielder's choice. José Ramírez scores. Jo Adell to 3rd. Throwing error by first baseman Pete Alonso.7–5
5Pete Alonso homers (34) on a fly ball to left field. Jackson Holliday scores.6–5
5Jackson Holliday singles on a ground ball to right fielder Angel Martínez, deflected by first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Leody Taveras scores.6–3
5Leody Taveras doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Petey Halpin. Blaze Alexander scores.6–2
4Samuel Basallo grounds out to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Jackson Holliday scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd. Coby Mayo to 2nd.6–1
3Petey Halpin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Angel Martínez to 3rd.6–0
2Travis Bazzana homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Petey Halpin scores. Steven Kwan scores.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






