Royals at Red Sox
Last play · Roman Anthony strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
KC 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 3 – 2 BOS
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+177 / -217
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu doubles (35) on a fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Adley Rutschman scores. (inning 5) — +15% Red Sox
5Wilyer Abreu doubles (35) on a fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Adley Rutschman scores.3–2
5Mickey Gasper homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.3–1
3Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Carter Jensen scores.3–0
3Carter Jensen doubles (31) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Roman Anthony. Isaac Collins scores.2–0
1Salvador Perez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Roman Anthony. Carter Jensen scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
