Pirates at White Sox
Last play · Miguel Vargas called out on strikes.
Win probability
White Sox0%
PIT 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 0 CWS
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Esmerlyn Valdez homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — -22% Pirates
8Munetaka Murakami homers (31) on a fly ball to right center field.4–2
7Sam Antonacci singles on a sharp ground ball to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Braden Montgomery scores. Chase Meidroth to 3rd. Kyle Teel to 2nd.4–1
7Konnor Griffin singles on a line drive to center fielder Tristan Peters. Spencer Horwitz scores. Ronny Simon scores.4–0
7Rafael Flores Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Tristan Peters. Billy Cook scores. Spencer Horwitz to 3rd.2–0
5Esmerlyn Valdez homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
