Cubs at Rockies
Last play · Sterlin Thompson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Troy Johnston scores. Brett Sullivan to 2nd.
Win probability
Rockies100%
CHC 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 0 COL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-168 / +139
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · TJ Rumfield homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Edouard Julien scores. (inning 8) — +61% Rockies
9Sterlin Thompson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Troy Johnston scores. Brett Sullivan to 2nd.2–3
9Ian Happ homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
8TJ Rumfield homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Edouard Julien scores.1–2
4Moisés Ballesteros grounds out to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






