Twins at Tigers
Last play · Trevor Larnach flies out to left fielder Brett Callahan.
Win probability
Tigers100%
MIN 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 5 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colt Keith homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Hao-Yu Lee scores. (inning 1) — +17% Tigers
8John Peck singles on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Max Clark scores.2–7
7Dillon Dingler singles on a line drive to center fielder Walker Jenkins. Spencer Torkelson scores. Riley Greene to 2nd.2–6
4Josh Bell homers (19) on a fly ball to left field.2–5
4Kody Clemens homers (26) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
3Brett Callahan hits a ground-rule double (2) on a line drive down the left-field line. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Riley Greene to 3rd.0–5
3Dillon Dingler out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–4
3Riley Greene walks. John Peck scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd. Hao-Yu Lee to 2nd.0–3
1Colt Keith homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Hao-Yu Lee scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
