Dodgers at Marlins
Last play · Will Smith lines out to third baseman Javier Sanoja.
Win probability
Marlins100%
LAD 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 2 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-168 / +138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Graham Pauley homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Owen Caissie scores. (inning 2) — +26% Marlins
9Hunter Feduccia singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Josue De Paula scores.3–4
5Javier Sanoja reaches on a fielder's choice. Griffin Conine scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. Jakob Marsee to 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Mookie Betts.2–4
2Otto Lopez singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Heriberto Hernández scores. Griffin Conine to 2nd.2–3
2Graham Pauley homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Owen Caissie scores.2–2
1Max Muncy homers (28) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
1Mookie Betts homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
