Reds at Brewers
Last play · Will Banfield pops out to second baseman David Hamilton.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CIN 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 17 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+169 / -207
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew Vaughn doubles (18) on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Brice Turang scores. Fielding error by left fielder JJ Bleday. (inning 1) — +9% Brewers
8William Contreras homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. Joey Ortiz scores. David Hamilton scores.0–20
5Garrett Mitchell hits a grand slam (10) to center field. William Contreras scores. Luis Lara scores. Cooper Pratt scores.0–17
5William Contreras singles on a ground ball to center fielder Carlos Jorge. Jackson Chourio scores. David Hamilton scores.0–13
5Brice Turang doubles (33) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Carlos Jorge. Joey Ortiz scores. Jackson Chourio to 3rd.0–11
5Jackson Chourio singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Garrett Mitchell scores. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.0–10
4Jake Bauers singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Carlos Jorge. Brice Turang scores. Fielding error by center fielder Carlos Jorge.0–9
2Jake Bauers homers (25) on a fly ball to center field. Andrew Vaughn scores.0–8
2Brice Turang homers (18) on a line drive to right center field. Garrett Mitchell scores. Jackson Chourio scores.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
