Guardians at Twins
Last play · Austin Hedges called out on strikes.
Win probability
Twins100%
CLE 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-109 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Travis Bazzana singles on a ground ball to center fielder Emmanuel Rodriguez. Jo Adell scores. Angel Martínez out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Emmanuel Rodriguez to third baseman Brooks Lee. (inning 2) — -15% Guardians
5Steven Kwan singles on a line drive to center fielder Emmanuel Rodriguez. Austin Hedges scores.3–4
5Brayan Rocchio grounds out, second baseman Kody Clemens to first baseman Royce Lewis. David Fry scores. Austin Hedges to 3rd.2–4
3Victor Caratini hit by pitch. Kody Clemens scores. Royce Lewis to 3rd. Ryan Kreidler to 2nd.1–4
3Royce Lewis singles on a line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Brooks Lee scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd.1–3
3Kody Clemens singles on a line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Luke Keaschall scores. Brooks Lee to 2nd.1–2
3Emmanuel Rodriguez homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
2Travis Bazzana singles on a ground ball to center fielder Emmanuel Rodriguez. Jo Adell scores. Angel Martínez out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Emmanuel Rodriguez to third baseman Brooks Lee.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
