Astros at Mets
Last play · Marcus Semien flies out to left fielder Nelson Velázquez.
Win probability
Mets0%
HOU 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 3 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · LaMonte Wade Jr. homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Yainer Diaz scores. (inning 6) — -31% Astros
7Daulton Varsho grounds out to first baseman Jared Young. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve scores. Christian Walker to 3rd. Throwing error by first baseman Jared Young.6–3
6LaMonte Wade Jr. homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Yainer Diaz scores.4–3
5Luis Torrens grounds into a double play, shortstop Jeremy Peña to second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman Christian Walker. A.J. Ewing scores. Marcus Semien out at 2nd. Luis Torrens out at 1st.2–3
2Jeremy Peña singles on a line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Yainer Diaz scores. Nick Allen to 3rd.2–2
1Juan Soto homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.1–2
1Francisco Lindor homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Jeremy Peña homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






