Mets at Yankees
Last play · Juan Soto grounds into a double play, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to shortstop George Lombard Jr. to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Francisco Lindor out at 2nd. Juan Soto out at 1st.
Win probability
Yankees100%
NYM 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 5 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Bellinger homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Anthony Volpe scores. Ben Rice scores. (inning 2) — +26% Yankees
9A.J. Ewing homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.4–6
8Ryan McMahon singles on a fly ball to left fielder Juan Soto. José Caballero scores. Spencer Jones to 3rd.3–6
8Marcus Semien out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Spencer Jones. Bo Bichette scores. Cristian Pache to 3rd.3–5
7A.J. Ewing singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge. Carson Benge scores. Jared Young to 2nd.2–5
5Ben Rice homers (37) on a fly ball to left center field.1–5
2Cody Bellinger homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Anthony Volpe scores. Ben Rice scores.1–4
2Christopher Morel grounds out, shortstop George Lombard Jr. to first baseman Luis García Jr. Mark Vientos scores.1–1
1Spencer Jones singles on a line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Ben Rice scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd. Aaron Judge to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
