Dodgers at Pirates
Last play · Freddie Freeman lines out to third baseman Nick Gonzales.
Win probability
Pirates100%
LAD 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 2 – 1 PIT
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-207 / +169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Callihan homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Nick Gonzales scores. Rafael Flores Jr. scores. (inning 8) — +73% Pirates
9Shohei Ohtani homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. Miguel Rojas scores.8–9
8Spencer Horwitz homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Jared Triolo scores.6–9
8Tyler Callihan homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Nick Gonzales scores. Rafael Flores Jr. scores.6–7
7Bryan Reynolds reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Max Muncy. Brandon Lowe scores.6–4
7Brandon Lowe doubles (16) on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Tyler Callihan scores. Jake Mangum scores.6–3
6Ryan Ward hits a grand slam (3) to right field. Andy Pages scores. Freddie Freeman scores. Max Muncy scores.6–1
4Tyler Callihan homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
4Kyle Tucker singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake Mangum. Max Muncy scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






