Padres at Giants
Last play · Bryce Eldridge called out on strikes.
Win probability
Giants0%
SD 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 7 – 5 SF
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-192 / +158
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Devers hits a grand slam (36) to right field. Andrew Knizner scores. Christian Koss scores. Jonah Cox scores. (inning 5) — +24% Giants
5Rafael Devers hits a grand slam (36) to right field. Andrew Knizner scores. Christian Koss scores. Jonah Cox scores.7–5
3Freddy Fermin doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Turner Hill. Dustin Harris scores.7–1
3Dustin Harris triples (2) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Xander Bogaerts scores.6–1
3Xander Bogaerts doubles (15) on a ground ball to left fielder Turner Hill. Luis Campusano scores. Jackson Merrill scores.5–1
3Luis Campusano doubles (12) on a line drive to left fielder Turner Hill. Jake Cronenworth scores.3–1
2Freddy Fermin doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jonah Cox. Dustin Harris scores.2–1
2Dustin Harris singles on a line drive to left fielder Turner Hill. Jackson Merrill scores.1–1
1Bryce Eldridge singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jonah Cox scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
