Padres at Giants
Last play · Nate Furman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants0%
SD 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 5 – 3 SF
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-192 / +158
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drew Gilbert homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Christian Koss scores. (inning 8) — +22% Giants
8Drew Gilbert homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Christian Koss scores.7–6
8Drew Cavanaugh homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.7–4
7Fernando Tatis Jr. reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Shay Whitcomb. Xander Bogaerts scores. Samad Taylor to 3rd.7–3
6Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (21) on a fly ball to left field.6–3
5Jake Cronenworth singles on a soft bunt ground ball to third baseman Shay Whitcomb. Austin Hays scores.5–3
4Dustin Harris out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Samad Taylor scores.4–3
3Jackson Merrill homers (25) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
2Shay Whitcomb homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
