Rangers at Mariners
Last play · Dominic Canzone called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mariners0%
TEX 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 9 – 3 SEA
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lazaro Montes homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Cal Raleigh scores. Cole Young scores. (inning 4) — +32% Mariners
9Randy Arozarena out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Josh Naylor scores. Cole Young to 3rd.10–5
8Dominic Canzone doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Randy Arozarena scores.10–4
7Danny Jansen singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Evan Carter scores. Nicky Lopez to 2nd.10–3
5Danny Jansen homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake Burger scores. Nicky Lopez scores.9–3
5Wyatt Langford homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Ezequiel Duran scores.6–3
4Lazaro Montes homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Cal Raleigh scores. Cole Young scores.4–3
4Justin Foscue singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Evan Carter scores. Jake Burger scores. Nicky Lopez to 3rd.4–0
2Nicky Lopez singles on a fly ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Wyatt Langford scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






