Rangers at Mariners
Last play · Rangers challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Jake Burger grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Cole Young. Evan Carter out at 2nd.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TEX 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 3 – 0 SEA
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez homers (21) on a line drive to left center field. Dominic Canzone scores. Cal Raleigh scores. (inning 7) — +60% Mariners
7Julio Rodríguez homers (21) on a line drive to left center field. Dominic Canzone scores. Cal Raleigh scores.3–4
7Dominic Canzone singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Randy Arozarena scores.3–1
5Nicky Lopez singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Logan Gilbert. Evan Carter scores. Jake Burger to 2nd.3–0
3Joc Pederson homers (26) on a fly ball to right center field. Nicky Lopez scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
