White Sox at Cardinals
Last play · Tristan Peters grounds out to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CWS 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 2 – 6 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chase Meidroth homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 3) — -15% White Sox
8Munetaka Murakami grounds into a force out, first baseman Alec Burleson to shortstop Masyn Winn. Sam Antonacci scores. Kyle Teel out at 2nd. Munetaka Murakami to 1st.3–7
7Leo Bernal singles on a line drive to left fielder Randal Grichuk. Joshua Báez scores.2–7
5Leo Bernal singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randal Grichuk. Joshua Báez scores.2–6
5Joshua Báez doubles (6) on a fly ball to left fielder Randal Grichuk. Alec Burleson scores.2–5
5Alec Burleson singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Tristan Peters. Jordan Walker scores.2–4
3Joshua Báez singles on a line drive to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Jordan Walker scores. Joshua Báez to 2nd.2–3
3Chase Meidroth homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
2Masyn Winn grounds into a force out, third baseman Colson Montgomery to second baseman Chase Meidroth. Leo Bernal scores. Thomas Saggese out at 2nd. Masyn Winn to 1st.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
