White Sox at Cardinals
Last play · Leo Bernal grounds out, shortstop Luisangel Acuña to first baseman Munetaka Murakami.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CWS 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 4 – 4 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Randal Grichuk homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Brenton Doyle scores. (inning 9) — -71% White Sox
9Randal Grichuk homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Brenton Doyle scores.6–5
8Leo Bernal homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.4–5
5Tristan Peters singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Miguel Vargas scores. Tristan Peters out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Nathan Church to second baseman Thomas Saggese.4–4
5Randal Grichuk grounds into a double play, shortstop Masyn Winn to second baseman Thomas Saggese to first baseman Alec Burleson. Kyle Teel scores. Miguel Vargas to 3rd. Munetaka Murakami out at 2nd. Randal Grichuk out at 1st.3–4
5Munetaka Murakami walks. Sam Antonacci scores. Kyle Teel to 3rd. Miguel Vargas to 2nd.2–4
4Nathan Church doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Nolan Gorman scores.1–4
4Colson Montgomery walks. Munetaka Murakami scores. Tristan Peters to 3rd. Chase Meidroth to 2nd.1–3
2José Fermín out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tristan Peters. Masyn Winn scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
