Phillies at Blue Jays
Last play · J.T. Realmuto challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Kazuma Okamoto called out on strikes.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
PHI 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 6 – 0 TOR
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Bohm homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper scores. (inning 3) — -26% Phillies
7Kazuma Okamoto out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Adolis García. George Springer scores.7–4
7Ernie Clement out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Adolis García. Nathan Lukes scores. George Springer to 3rd.7–3
7Vladimir Guerrero Jr. walks. Myles Straw scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd. George Springer to 2nd.7–2
7Bryson Stott singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Bryce Harper scores. Alec Bohm to 2nd.7–1
6Brandon Valenzuela singles on a line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Ernie Clement scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 3rd. Throwing error by right fielder Adolis García.6–1
4Kyle Schwarber homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field. Justin Crawford scores.6–0
3Alec Bohm homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper scores.4–0
1Bryce Harper homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






